UFC returns to big Fox Saturday night for a four-fight main show that is fairly PPV worthy for hardcore fans while the rest of the undercard isn’t exactly anything to write home about.
The main event features Carlos Condit who is seen by many as the uncrowned champion of the welterweight division facing Demian Maia — probably the best grappler in the sport…in any weight class. The co-main features a former champion (Anthony Pettis) moving down a weight class to try and recapture some of his lost glory against a submission expert (Charles Oliveira) who was once looked at as the future of the division before some losses hurt that standing.
We’ve also got a reality TV star making her return to the Octagon, a rematch of an all-time great fight, and the return of Smilin’ Sam. What more could you ask for on free TV?
Here’s our panel with the 2016 records in parenthesis. We’ve also added a running tally of the records of the favorites going into the fights and the panel consensus picks
Josh Nason (53-37; .589): Host of Josh Nason’s Punch Out; writer/editor/social media for WrestlingObserver.com
John Pollock (53-37; .589): Fight Network analyst, Live Audio Wrestling co-host, MMA Report co-host
David Bixenspan (53-37; .589): Figure Four Weekly writer, podcast host
Ryan Frederick (52-38; .578) – WrestlingObserver.com UFC reporter, WON Twitter guy
Favorites (50-40; .556)
Dave Meltzer (49-41; .544): Wrestling Observer founder
Front Row Brian (49-41; .544): MMA newsbreaker, Beloved internet personality, Podcast host
Mike Sawyer (49-41; .544): Tough Talk MMA
Mike Sempervive (49-41; .544): Wrestling Observer Live and Big Audio Nightmare co-host
Consensus picks (43-36; .544)
Steve Juon (48-42; .533): MMA Mania/Wrestling Observer writer. Angry Marks founder
Paul Fontaine (45-45; .500): MMADraws.com founder, WrestlingObserver.com writer
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> Carlos Condit (30-9) vs Demian Maia (23-6)
Welterweights
This is the classic grappler vs striker matchup, and is an awesome free TV main event as both guys are legitimate title contenders. In fact, many feel that Condit should have won the decision in his title challenge of then-champion Robbie Lawler. Maia has never fought for the welterweight title and could get that elusive shot with a win here. It seems pretty simple: if the fight stays standing, Condit wins. If Maia can get it to the ground, he wins. The oddsmakers have this as almost a coinflip.
– Condit (very small favorite): Frederick, Juon, Sawyer, Pollock, Fontaine, Meltzer, Sempervive
– Maia: Bix, Nason, FRB
> Anthony Pettis (18-5) vs Charles Oliveira
Featherweights
Pettis, the former UFC and WEC champion at lightweight, drops down to 145 in hopes of snapping a two-fight losing streak. Without a doubt, it’s a must-win situation. Oliveira has been a top 10 contender for years, but always seems to take a step back when he faces really top competition. He has won five of his last six coming into this one with the only loss coming due to a fluke injury against Max Holloway a year ago.
It’s notable that that Oliveira came in two pounds underweight (143) after previously having trouble making weight.
– Pettis (moderate favorite): Frederick, Sawyer, Pollock, Nason, FRB, Meltzer, Sempervive
– Oliveira: Juon, Bix, Fontaine
> Paige VanZant (6-2) vs Bec Rawlings (7-4)
Strawweights
VanZant returns to the Octagon for the first time since a brutal beating at the hands of Rose Namajunas last December. In the meantime, she had a successful appearance on ABC’s Dancing with the Stars that increased her mainstream name recognition. Rawlings comes in on a two fight win streak after losing her UFC debut. Both are punchers so this should be a standup war and a potential show-stealer.
– VanZant (moderate favorite): Frederick, Juon, Sawyer, Pollock, Bix, Nason, FRB, Meltzer, Sempervive
– Rawlings: Fontaine
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> Jim Miller (26-8) vs Joe Lauzon (26-11)
Lightweights
A rematch of a 2012 fight of the year candidate at UFC 155 kicks off the main card and promises to be great. These guys have combined for 24 post-show performance award bonuses and have a reputation for leaving it all in the cage. Neither will likely contend for a title any time soon, but they are great guys to have on a card — especially when they’re in against each other. Each scored an impressive first round KO at UFC 200 with Miller beating Takanori Gomi and Lauzon doing the same to Diego Sanchez.
– Lauzon (small favorite): Juon, Sawyer, Pollock, Bix, Nason, FRB, Meltzer
– Miller: Frederick, Fontaine, Sempervive
> Sam Alvey (27-8) vs Kevin Casey (9-4-1)
Middleweights
Sam Alvey has developed one of the most familiar gimmicks in MMA as Smilin’ Sam. His post-match promos are either the best or worst thing ever….depending on your perspective. One thing that isn’t in dispute is his devastating power as his last four wins have all been first round round finishes.
Casey is a bit of an enigma. He’s also been looked at as someone with a lot of talent but some have questioned his heart. He fought a great fight the last time out, going to split decicision draw at UFC 199. It’s notable that the fight came just hours after learning of the death of his father-in-law, the legendary Muhammad Ali.
This is your featured prelim fight, also on Fox.
Alvey (moderate favorite): Frederick, Juon, Sawyer, Pollock, Bix, Nason, Fontaine, FRB, Meltzer, Sempervive
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Action begins with the Fight Pass Prelims at 5:00 pm EST, moving over to Fox at 6 pm for the duration of the night. I will have live coverage of the fights here.
While you’re waiting, check out the following content, also related to the show:
– DFS playbook – Who to pick, who to avoid
– UFC on FOX 21 discussion on the Board, including Ryan Frederick’s extensive preview of the card, along with fighter notes
– Josh Nason’s Punch-Out with MMAFighting’s Shaun Al-Shatti