XX
By the Secret Psychic Spy ([email protected])
Starting Bankroll: $1,500
Current Bankroll: $735.22
Last week: 1/4 (1 push) Overall 49/85 (58%)
Six months in and had to add to the bankroll to make up for some of the recent losses. It hasn’t been good recently but historically my picks have still proven to be winners most weeks than not so I’m confident that the bankroll will start heading in the other direction. This week we’ve got a Fight Night show from Brazil on FS 1 with 12 big fights and I’ve found 5 that I think have some betting value.
Pick 1 – KJ Noons (13-7) +110 over Alex Oliveira (11-2-1) I’m betting $100 to win $110
I really believe that Noons is a live underdog here. He’s on a bit of a career resurgence, having won two in a row and seemed really comfortable the last time he fought at 170 which he will do this weekend as well. Oliveira has a better record but has faced a much lower level of competition than Noons, who has fought over his career fights in UFC and Strikeforce.
Pick 2 – Wendell Oliveira (24-8) -120 over Darren Till (11-0) I’m betting $100 to win $83.33
Till is making his UFC debut, having fought every one of his pro fights on the Brazilian regional circuit and not even in the bigger regionals like Shooto Brazil or Jungle Fights. Oliveira has fought in UFC and also on TUF Brazil so should be more ready for the “big time”. With the fight being basically a pick ’em, I’ll take the more experienced fighter.
Pick 3 – Lucas Martins (15-2) +375 over Mirsad Bektic (9-0) I’m betting $100 to win $375
Taking a flier here. Even money, I’m picking Bektic but I really like the nearly 4 to 1 odds for Martins. First off the Brazil cards usually have big upsets. Secondly, Martins has finishing ability as witnessed by all 3 of his UFC wins coming by KO or submission. Bektic is unbeaten, yes, but both of his UFC wins have come by decision and he’s beaten Paul Redmond and Chas Skelly, not exactly world-beaters. Martins has a split-decision loss to veteran Darren Elkins and a submission loss to Edson Barboza, when Barboza was still unbeaten and tearing through the division.
Pick 4 – Tom Breese (7-0) -175 over Luiz Dutra Jr (11-3-1) I’m betting $100 to win $57.14
Breese is making his UFC debut but has fought his entire career in BAMMA and Cage Warriors, the top two local groups in the UK. He’s submitted every one of his pro opponents. Dutra should have some cage rust, having fought just once in the last 3 years, a DQ loss last year on the first ever Fight Pass event, which was his only UFC fight.
Pick 5 – Ron Jason (14-5) -190 over Damon Jackson (9-1) I’m betting $100 to win $52.63
Jason fights for the first time in a year, when he had a split decision against Robbie Peralta. His UFC career pattern has generally been win/loss/win/loss so by that logic, he’s due for a win here. He’ll be one of the most popular fighters on the card and I think he’s led by that crowd passion and scores an early knockout. Jackson is coming off his first career loss and returning to featherweight where he’s competed the majority of his career.
All told, I’m betting $500 with a chance to win $678.11
On with the betting game.
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Ryan Frederick
Current Standings:
Ryan Frederick: $176.92 (Picked Browne, Magny, Matthews)
Secret Psychic Spy: $0 (Picked Pyle, Wee, Andrews)
Freddy and I both lost last week. Sure looked like Mike Pyle was going to pull it out for me in the 3rd round there but he couldn’t get the job done. Browne was overwhelmed by the resurgent Andrei Arlovski but took home a $50K bonus for Fight of the Night for his troubles. I always allow Freddy the first pick and for the 2nd time in four weeks he’s picked the pick as I would’ve. So my backup is Tom Breese for the reasons listed above.
Freddy’s pick and analysis:
K.J. Noons +110 over Alex Oliveira
My guarantee didn’t pan out last week so now I find myself in a hole, but I think I can get out of it this week. I’m a bit surprised that Noons is the underdog to Oliveira. I see Noons as a better fighter, and Oliveira is at a disadvantage of coming in on super short notice. He came in on super short notice in his last fight, and he had the fight won over Gilbert Burns before he faded late. I think the same thing happens here and Noons pulls out the victory.
Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else remember, Freddy’s going down!
–