Trump Effect: Manufacturing continues amazing expansion in September despite tariff concerns

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September along with the overall economy, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM Manufacturing report.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The September PMI® registered 59.8 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the August reading of 61.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 61.8 percent, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the August reading of 65.1 percent. The Production Index registered 63.9 percent, a 0.6 percentage point increase compared to the August reading of 63.3 percent. The Employment Index registered 58.8 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the August reading of 58.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 61.1 percent, a 3.4-percentage point decrease from the August reading of 64.5 percent. The Inventories Index registered 53.3 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the August reading of 55.4 percent. The Prices Index registered 66.9 percent in September, a 5.2-percentage point decrease from the August reading of 72.1 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 31st consecutive month.

“Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength. Demand remains strong, with the New Orders Index at 60 percent or above for the 17th straight month, and the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining low. The Backlog of Orders Index continued to expand, but at lower levels compared to the previous month. Consumption improved, with production and employment continuing to expand, at higher levels compared to August, despite shortages in labor and materials. Inputs— expressed as supplier deliveries (decreased), inventories and imports — improved compared to prior month’s activity. But continued supply chain inefficiencies led to an increased consumption of inventory and a slight expansion of imports, which adequately supported production output.  Lead-time extensions, steel and aluminum disruptions, supplier labor issues, and transportation difficulties continue to limit potential, but at more manageable levels.

“Export orders expanded, but four major industries are no longer contributing. Price pressure continues, but the index softened for the fourth straight month and dropped below 70 for the first time since December 2017. Demand remains robust, but employment resources and supply chains continue to struggle, but to a lesser degree. Respondents are again overwhelmingly concerned about tariff-related activity, including how reciprocal tariffs will impact company revenue and current manufacturing locations,” says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 reported growth in September, in the following order: Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. The only industry reporting contraction in September is Primary Metals.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • “Business is strong and relatively stable. Tariffs are putting pressure on Chinese imports. Labor rates are increasing as it is very difficult to find help.” (Furniture & Related Products)
  • “The economy’s strength is holding, [and] outlook for the industry is positive, although continuing margin compression in consumer packaged goods is restricting general growth momentum from the greater economy.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Still extremely strong through November; starting to see a decline for steel prices for December.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “General available capacity at suppliers continues to decrease, creating supply issues.” (Machinery)
  • “Tariffs are creating a drag on some of our export opportunities.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • “Sourcing hourly workers for remote locations continues to be a challenge for both full-time and part-time opportunities. Have implemented a wide variety of recruiting techniques and suppliers to aid us in sourcing this hard-to-find talent.” (Paper Products)
  • “Orders are coming in, but from a limited number of customers. The future looks very promising.” (Primary Metals)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE

September 2018

Index

Series
Index

Sep

Series
Index

Aug

Percentage

Point

Change

Direction

Rate of
Change

Trend*
(Months)

PMI®

59.8

61.3

-1.5

Growing

Slower

25

New Orders

61.8

65.1

-3.3

Growing

Slower

33

Production

63.9

63.3

+0.6

Growing

Faster

25

Employment

58.8

58.5

+0.3

Growing

Faster

24

Supplier Deliveries

61.1

64.5

-3.4

Slowing

Slower

24

Inventories

53.3

55.4

-2.1

Growing

Slower

9

Customers’ Inventories

40.5

41.0

-0.5

Too Low

Faster

24

Prices

66.9

72.1

-5.2

Increasing

Slower

31

Backlog of Orders

55.7

57.5

-1.8

Growing

Slower

20

New Export Orders

56.0

55.2

+0.8

Growing

Faster

31

Imports

54.5

53.9

+0.6

Growing

Faster

20

OVERALL ECONOMY

Growing

Slower

113

Manufacturing Sector

Growing

Slower

25

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries Indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (23); Aluminum Based Products (5); Corrugate (24); Electrical Components (2); Electronic Components (2); Freight (8); Hydrochloric Acid; Lumber (3); Nylon (4); Paper (5); Steel*; Steel — Stainless (6); Steel Based Products (5); and Sulfuric Acid.

Commodities Down in Price
Brass; Copper (3); Steel*; and Steel — Hot Rolled.

Commodities in Short Supply
Capacitors (15); Electronic Components (5); Freight (5); Labor (2); Nylon; Resistors (11); and Sulfuric Acid.

The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.

SEPTEMBER 2018 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

PMI®
Manufacturing expanded in September as the PMI® registered 59.8 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the August reading of 61.3 percent. “This indicates strong growth in manufacturing for the 25th consecutive month, led by strong production output, continued strength in new orders, and improvements in supply chain delivery performance, and better utilization of existing inventory accounts,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI® above 43.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September PMI® indicates growth for the 113th consecutive month in the overall economy and the 25th straight month of growth in the manufacturing sector. “The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the PMI® for September (59.8 percent) corresponds to a 5.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month

PMI®

Month

PMI®

Sep 2018

59.8

Mar 2018

59.3

Aug 2018

61.3

Feb 2018

60.8

Jul 2018

58.1

Jan 2018

59.1

Jun 2018

60.2

Dec 2017

59.3

May 2018

58.7

Nov 2017

58.2

Apr 2018

57.3

Oct 2017

58.5

Average for 12 months – 59.2

High – 61.3

Low – 57.3

New Orders
ISM®‘s New Orders Index registered 61.8 percent in September, which is a decrease of 3.3 percentage points when compared to the 65.1 percent reported for August, indicating growth in new orders for the 33rd consecutive month. “Customer demand expansion softened slightly this month but continued to expand at high levels, with the index at or above 60 percent for the 17th straight month,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Twelve of 18 industries reported growth in new orders in September, in the following order: Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Transportation Equipment. The three industries reporting a decrease in new orders in September are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; and Fabricated Metal Products.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

31.4

57.7

10.9

+20.5

61.8

Aug 2018

35.4

54.3

10.3

+25.1

65.1

Jul 2018

29.0

60.1

10.9

+18.1

60.2

Jun 2018

39.7

53.0

7.3

+32.5

63.5

Production
ISM®‘s Production Index registered 63.9 percent in September, which is an increase of 0.6 percentage point when compared to the 63.3 percent reported for August, indicating growth in production for the 25th consecutive month. “Production expansion continued in September, surpassing August expansion and resulting in the strongest gains since January 2018, when the index registered 64.5. Labor constraints throughout the supply chain, impacts due to lead-time expansions and transportation difficulties continue to limit full production potential,” says Fiore. An index above 51.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The 14 industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment. No industry reported a decrease in production in September.

Production

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

33.6

56.7

9.6

+24.0

63.9

Aug 2018

35.3

53.8

10.9

+24.4

63.3

Jul 2018

31.5

52.6

15.9

+15.6

58.5

Jun 2018

38.7

51.0

10.3

+28.4

62.3

Employment
ISM®‘s Employment Index registered 58.8 percent in September, an increase of 0.3 percentage point when compared to the August reading of 58.5 percent. This indicates growth in employment in September for the 24th consecutive month. “Employment continued to expand, supporting production growth. The index achieved its highest level since February 2018, when it registered 59.7. Respondents continued to note labor-market issues as a constraint to their production and, more significantly, their suppliers’ production capability,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the 12 reporting employment growth in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Chemical Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in employment in September are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Furniture & Related Products.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

26.1

62.9

11.0

+15.1

58.8

Aug 2018

26.6

63.6

9.8

+16.8

58.5

Jul 2018

27.1

61.2

11.7

+15.4

56.5

Jun 2018

29.0

59.6

11.3

+17.7

56.0

Supplier Deliveries
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations slowed in September, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 61.1 percent. This is 3.4 percentage points lower than the 64.5 percent reported for August. “This is the 24th straight month of slowing supplier deliveries and indicates the supply chain’s difficulty in keeping up with new order and production demand. Lead times continue to extend, supply chain labor issues continue to restrict performance, and transportation issues are limiting supplier execution,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The 13 industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment. No manufacturing industries reported faster supplier deliveries during the month of September.

Supplier Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

Net

Index

Sep 2018

28.3

67.1

4.6

+23.7

61.1

Aug 2018

32.6

62.9

4.5

+28.1

64.5

Jul 2018

28.5

67.8

3.7

+24.8

62.1

Jun 2018

38.7

58.9

2.4

+36.3

68.2

Inventories*
The Inventories Index registered 53.3 percent in September, which is a decrease of 2.1 percentage points when compared to the 55.4 percent reported for August. “Inventories continued to expand for the ninth consecutive month. Supplier deliveries improved compared to the previous month, but inventories declined as a result of strong production output,” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 43 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The 11 industries reporting higher inventories in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery. The three industries reporting a decrease in inventories in September are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; and Furniture & Related Products.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

20.6

65.4

14.0

+6.6

53.3

Aug 2018

25.2

60.4

14.5

+10.7

55.4

Jul 2018

22.3

61.9

15.8

+6.5

53.3

Jun 2018

20.7

60.2

19.1

+1.6

50.8

Customers’ Inventories*
ISM®‘s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 40.5 percent in September, which is 0.5 percentage point lower than the 41 percent reported for August, indicating that customers’ inventory levels were considered too low. “Customers’ inventory levels are too low for the 24th consecutive month, which continue to represent notable unmet demand in the near term,” says Fiore.

The only manufacturing industry that reported customers’ inventories as too high during the month of September is Transportation Equipment. The nine industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during September — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Six industries reported no change in customers’ inventories in September as compared with August.

Customers’
Inventories

%
Reporting

%Too
High

%About
Right

%Too
Low

Net

Index

Sep 2018

79

6.0

69.0

25.0

-19.0

40.5

Aug 2018

82

7.8

66.5

25.7

-17.9

41.0

Jul 2018

79

4.8

69.2

26.0

-21.2

39.4

Jun 2018

79

5.3

68.9

25.8

-20.6

39.7

Prices*
The ISM® Prices Index registered 66.9 percent in September, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points from the August reading of 72.1 percent, indicating an increase in raw materials prices for the 31st consecutive month. In September, 42.3 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices, 8.6 percent reported paying lower prices, and 49.1 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in August. “The price increases across all industry sectors continue, but at lower expansion levels. The Business Survey Committee noted price increases softening in metals (all steels, steel components and aluminum). However, increases continue in various chemicals, corrugate and packaging products, freight, labor, electrical and electronic components, products manufactured primarily from steel, and paper products. Shortages continue in electrical and electronic components, labor, and freight. The index eased to its lowest expansion level since November 2017, when it registered 64.8 percent,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

Fifteen of the 18 industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials in September, in the following order: Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The two industries reporting a decrease in prices in September are: Primary Metals; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

42.3

49.1

8.6

+33.7

66.9

Aug 2018

51.1

42.0

6.8

+44.3

72.1

Jul 2018

54.6

37.3

8.1

+46.5

73.2

Jun 2018

56.9

39.9

3.3

+53.6

76.8

Backlog of Orders*
ISM®‘s Backlog of Orders Index registered 55.7 percent in September, which is 1.8 percentage points lower than the 57.5 percent reported in August, indicating growth in order backlogs for the 20th consecutive month. “Backlogs continued to grow, but at slightly lower levels compared to August. Continued low levels of customer inventory and strong new order expansion continue to support production requirements in the near term,” says Fiore.

The 11 industries reporting growth in order backlogs in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment. The five industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs during September are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Furniture & Related Products.

Backlog of
Orders

%
Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

89

26.7

57.9

15.4

+11.3

55.7

Aug 2018

87

30.3

54.4

15.3

+15.0

57.5

Jul 2018

87

24.0

61.3

14.7

+9.3

54.7

Jun 2018

90

32.8

54.6

12.6

+20.2

60.1

New Export Orders*
ISM®‘s New Export Orders Index registered 56 percent in September, an increase of 0.8 percentage point when compared to the 55.2 percent reported for August, indicating growth in new export orders for 31 consecutive months. “Export Index remains strong, but only two of the six big industry sectors contributed during the period, down two from the previous month,” says Fiore.

The five industries reporting growth in new export orders in September are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in September are: Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Transportation Equipment. Ten industries reported no change in new export orders in September.

New Export
Orders

%
Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

80

19.4

73.3

7.3

+12.1

56.0

Aug 2018

79

20.7

69.1

10.2

+10.5

55.2

Jul 2018

78

18.1

74.3

7.6

+10.5

55.3

Jun 2018

79

15.8

81.1

3.1

+12.6

56.3

Imports*
ISM®‘s Imports Index registered 54.5 percent in September, an increase of 0.6 percentage point when compared to the 53.9 percent reported for August, indicating that imports grew in September for the 20th consecutive month. “Imports continued to expand, but at 2.7 points lower than Q2 average levels,” says Fiore.

The nine industries reporting growth in imports during the month of September — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer  & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Chemical Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in imports during September are: Primary Metals; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Imports

%
Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Sep 2018

85

19.4

70.2

10.4

+9.0

54.5

Aug 2018

87

17.2

73.6

9.3

+7.9

53.9

Jul 2018

82

19.4

70.6

10.0

+9.4

54.7

Jun 2018

85

24.3

69.3

6.4

+17.9

59.0

*The Inventories, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures increased by three days in September to 147 days. Average lead time for Production Materials decreased by one day to 68 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies increased by one day to 34 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures

Hand-to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2018

19

7

10

19

23

22

147

Aug 2018

19

8

7

22

23

21

144

Jul 2018

23

7

9

15

28

18

137

Jun 2018

21

7

9

17

26

20

143

Production
Materials

Hand-to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2018

12

34

28

15

7

4

68

Aug 2018

11

36

27

14

8

4

69

Jul 2018

11

37

23

18

7

4

69

Jun 2018

11

33

29

16

7

4

69

MRO Supplies

Hand-to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Sep 2018

38

36

16

7

3

0

34

Aug 2018

41

37

15

4

2

1

33

Jul 2018

37

41

13

6

2

1

35

Jun 2018

36

43

14

5

2

0

31

Afghanistan Peace Deal? Mission Impossible Now Seems Very Likely

Taliban chief Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai and US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad

War-torn Afghanistan has not seen any peace since the 1970s, and the US involvement in the Afghanistan quagmire is in its 18th year, but there is growing momentum towards a peace deal.

The current negotiations in Doha between the Taliban and the US are the longest ever between the two sides and the optimism is very strong on both sides about the opportunity to reach a deal.

The Afghan Herald reported that a breakthrough has been made regarding issues such as the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, a ceasefire, the agreement that Afghanistan will not be used to attack or harm any other country and prisoner releases. On matters like the ceasefire, negotiations must also involve the Government in Kabul. The US negotiators have kept the Afghan government completely up to date and Kabul has not shown any objections to the peace negotiations and, especially in an election year, it is highly unlikely they would resist efforts to finally bring peace to a long-suffering Afghanistan.

Rahimullah Yusufzai, an expert on the Taliban, said the continuation of the talks represented “unprecedented” progress.

“I have never seen anything like this before, he said. “This is the first serious effort. And it has continued since July… they have agreed to disagree and continued to meet. That’s why it’s unprecedented.”

At the end of the day Thursday the US and the Taliban are expected to finalize an agreement and issue a joint statement.

Fox News Channel to present ‘Modern Warriors: A Veterans Day Special’

FOX News Channel (FNC) will present a one-hour special entitled Modern Warriors: A Veterans Day Special on Sunday, November 11th at 8 PM/ET.

“Does it get different the 400th time than the first time,” Pete asks. “It does, but it shouldn’t because complacency kills,” former Navy SEAL Rob O’Neill responds.

“If you do something right 400 times, that 401st time is going to get you,” he added.

Hosted by FOX & Friends Weekend co-host Pete Hegseth, the program will feature honorable veterans who will share their war stories, thoughts on today’s military, the reason why they served and what Veterans Day means to them. These honorable veterans include:

  • Rob O’Neill, the Former Navy SEAL who killed Osama bin Laden
  • Former Navy SEAL Marcus Luttrell
  • Medal of Honor Recipient Dakota Meyer
  • Retired U.S. Army Ranger Sean Parnell

Hegseth asks deep questions in this beer summit of top-line vets, and they provide revealing answers about their experiences, both good and bad.

Save on cookware, electronics and more with these Amazon.com promo codes for May

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Adieu France, So Long Stability

French Socialist President Francois Hollande’s newly elected government is planning to raise taxes on big companies while deterring businesses from engaging in layoffs by making that process more costly.

Hoping to nudge companies into investing rather than paying profits to shareholders, the government plans to impose a new 3% tax on dividends. Other plans include raising levies on capital gains, a special tax on banks and on energy companies, as well as imposition of government policies requiring the sale of profitable businesses in lieu of closure.

France’s Socialist government will dictate that it is illegal for a profitable, privately owned business to close its own doors.

So much for having the French people engaged in business activity. This less business-friendly government is going about the business of smothering France’s economy.

The prospects of trying to do business in France’s new economic environment resulted in margins tumbling, cash flow dwindling and orders collapsing. The uncertain outlook has postponed or cancelled investment and hiring.

Medef President Laurence Parisot told a news conference “The first source of financing for companies’ projects comes from private investors. Increasing tax on dividends runs the risk that private investors either invest less or elsewhere. We’ve had many meetings with the staff in ministries to explain what’s happening, but we are becoming deeply distressed. We fear a systematic strangling. Let’s be careful not to transform our country into a super-rigid enclave completely out of touch with the functioning of market economies as found everywhere else.” Parisot said.

Statistical data from the INSEE agency shows that business confidence fell in June to the lowest level since 2009, when France’s economy first showed signs of emerging from the nation’s worst post-war recession.

Hollande was elected last month after pledging to fight unemployment and revive growth. What he and his government are planning is not the way to go about achieving those goals. Attempting to resolve an economic dilemma that nanny state entitlement spending caused by destroying the tax base through imposition of business strangling regulations and taxes, while increasing the amount of spending done on entitlement programs is like trying to get a drunk sober by giving him a case of champagne. It’s going to have an effect opposite to the one desired. It is only going to make matters worse.

The way to balance a government budget is to stimulate private sector economic growth. That is what creates the tax base required to fund the government. Making it more difficult and more expensive to conduct business in the private sector is counter-productive to balancing any government budget.

By following economic policies similar to those Hollande plans for France, the United States is currently experiencing 1.8% economic growth. At this same point in President Ronald Reagan’s first term in office, his economic policies had stimulated the private sector U.S. economy to a 7.2% growth rate.

Can you say duh?

Both America and France could learn a thing or two from the economic policies of Ronald Reagan. In the case of the current White House occupant, that does not include hollow, unfounded, meaningless claims that you are much like President Reagan. It makes no difference whether those claims are made by you or your eager, obedient lapdogs in the institutionalized “progressive” left’s smear machine, referred to by your dumbed down, ill informed “progressive” congregation as the mainstream media.

France has the second biggest economy in the European Union. If this is the best the French can come up with, it is time to bid adieu to France and to European Union stability.

http://mjfellright.wordpress.com/2012/06/19/adieu-france-so-long-stability/

Top 5 Things You Should Know About No Credit Check Loans

Here’s a picture for you: you’re sitting in front of your new Mercedes, staring at a broken windscreen that seems to have appeared there overnight. Was it there before? Did someone threw a rock at it while you left it parked there? It doesn’t really matter anymore; all you know is that it’s going to cost you a fair amount of money to fix it.

This might, however, be fairly problematic if you don’t have the resources to pay for it. You know that the bank may not give you a loan on such a short notice, particularly if your credit score is down the drain. This means that your only option is a no credit check loan.

Still, before applying for no credit check loans, you need to keep several things in mind.

  1. Steer Clear from Payday and Title Loans

If you have bad credit, chances are that you are already struggling with your payments – and you don’t have a lot of money to begin with. For this reason, you should steer as clearly as possible from payday loans – mainly because they are very expensive.

Both payday loans and title loans have very high interest rates and are expected to be paid back over a short term. Most lenders ask you to pay it into just one slump – making it very difficult on the borrower. Sure, they don’t check your credit – but it will burn you in the long run.

  1. Make Sure They Check Your Ability to Pay

They might not care about your credit; it’s all in the past, you can be a different person now. Still, they do have to check your ability to pay back what you borrowed. After all, they made an investment in you – and if they don’t check on you, it means that they are counting on you defaulting. This way, it can become very profitable to the lender.

  1. Make Sure They do Soft Credit Inquiries

Not all credit checks are bad; a soft credit in will only give general information on you – and most importantly, will not appear on your credit report. A soft inquiry is most of the times good, because they’re checking whether or not you can pay the loan.

  1. Defaulting Will Still Hurt Your Credit

The initial credit check will not appear on your credit report – but that doesn’t mean you are in the clear. If you default on a no credit check loan, the collectors are very likely to report your mistake to your credit bureau – therefore putting another black spot on your credit.

  1. Consider Your Option

Don’t stay with the first option you get; instead, try shopping around for options. Every lender will see you as a different risk level – and will provide you different rates. Stack up some offers and choose the one with the lowest rate possible.

No credit check loans are not the end of the world. You just need to know how to pick them in order to make it work for you.

Nunes Says Lisa Page’s Testimony Confirms Conspiracy To Protect Clinton

GOP Rep. Devin Nunes of California said Thursday that former FBI lawyer Lisa Page confirmed the Justice Department conspired to bury Hillary Clinton’s email scandal.

Nunes was asked on “America’s Newsroom” about former GOP Rep. John Ratcliffe of Texas who tweeted out an excerpt of Page’s closed-door testimony before Congress. Ratcliffe said he asked Page if she was being ordered by the DOJ to avoid charging Clinton, and her answer was yes.

“I think it’s very significant. Look it’s never made any sense,” Nunes told Fox News. “If anyone in the military or anybody in the intelligence community, including people within the FBI — if they were to leak like that, they would be fired. They would be in prison. They would be prosecuted.”

“There were dozens and dozens of classified emails that were actually put onto an illegal server that was then destroyed, that was likely picked up by foreign intelligence, God knows what countries have these classified emails that Clinton was sending,” he added. “But the bottom line is, is that she should have been held accountable and she wasn’t. And there was an orchestrated effort, a conspiracy so to speak, to insure that she was not prosecuted.”

Host Bill Hemmer asked Nunes to respond to former FBI director James Comey’s comments about the investigation and Nunes said he has no credibility left.

“I’m not sure what credibility Comey has left. I mean, he went out and sold a book,” he said. “This guy brought tremendous disgrace on the FBI. We are still trying to get to the bottom and clean up what has been a total disaster for the FBI and DOJ. And we’re a long way from getting it cleaned up to get the FBI and Department of Justice back on track so that the American people have confidence in their capabilities.”

Afghan Hospital Accused of Misusing US Funds; US Commander in Politial Cover Up?

LTG William B. Caldwell

Several US military officers accused a US commander in Afghanistan of trying to cover up a scandal at a US-funded hospital in Kabul beginning in 2010. Speaking to the Congressional Committee of Oversight, the officers told lawmakers that they were discouraged by Lt General William Caldwell from reporting concern about the hospital. The implication given the officers was that such revelations could harm President Obama politically.

The US officers began noting concerns about misuse of funds from the Afghan Dawood National Military Hospital and lack of appropriate treatment offered to wounded Afghan soldiers in 2010. The United States government spent more than $150 Million in 18 months on the hospital in an effort to help the Afghans properly care for their wounded soldiers. The testifying officers have alleged that money was embezzled, medications hoarded including surgeries done without medicines. Some Afghan soldiers died of malnutrition at the hospital, in conditions that one retired Army colonel described as “Auschwitz-like.”

AFP/Yahoo News: “The general did not want bad news to leave his command before the election – or AFTER the election,” Colonel Gerald Carozza, Jr., a now-retired US Army judge advocate, said in written testimony to the House Committee on Oversight.

“The general, like too many generals, was too concerned about the message, creating a stifling climate for those who had to deal with the reality,” Carozza said, comparing Dawood to the Nazi concentration camp at Auschwitz.

In addition to the political implications there also was evidence of a cover up as evidenced by a memo introduced by House Panel Chair, Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah.

The Blaze: Chaffetz introduced a Sept. 12, 2011, memo from the training command that he described as an attempt to destroy evidence. The memo ordered destruction or deletion of unofficial audio and video recordings and photos of patients and conditions at the hospital.

“Under no circumstances will they be shared outside of this command, transmitted via email, posted to the internet, or duplicated in any way without prior approval of the Command Surgeon….” the memo said.

The following report from CNN’s Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr shares more details of this terrible situation. Please note: The video contains some graphic images.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales – Pirate’s Death

Johnny Depp returns to the big screen as the iconic, swashbuckling anti-hero Jack Sparrow in the all-new “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.”

The rip-roaring adventure finds down-on-his-luck Captain Jack feeling the winds of ill-fortune blowing strongly his way when deadly ghost sailors, led by the terrifying Captain Salazar (Javier Bardem), escape from the Devil’s Triangle bent on killing every pirate at sea—notably Jack. Jack’s only hope of survival lies in the legendary Trident of Poseidon, but to find it he must forge an uneasy alliance with Carina Smyth (Kaya Scodelario), a brilliant and beautiful astronomer, and Henry (Brenton Thwaites), a headstrong young sailor in the Royal Navy.

At the helm of the Dying Gull, his pitifully small and shabby ship, Captain Jack seeks not only to reverse his recent spate of ill fortune but to save his very life from the most formidable and malicious foe he has ever faced.

In theaters May 26th, 2017.

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales” also stars Kevin R. McNally as Joshamee Gibbs, Golshifteh Farahani as the sea-witch Shansa, Stephen Graham as Scrum, David Wenham as Scarfield and Geoffrey Rush as Captain Hector Barbossa.

Joachim Rønning and Espen Sandberg are directing “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales” with Jerry Bruckheimer producing. The executive producers are Mike Stenson, Chad Oman, Joe Caracciolo, Jr. and Brigham Taylor. Jeff Nathanson wrote the screenplay. “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales” drops anchor in U.S. theaters on May 26, 2017.

Report: Used Vehicle Market Poised for Record Sales in 2019

  • New car prices hit record highs
  • Certified pre-owned (CPO) vehicle sales expected to rise as affordable alternatives

Used vehicle sales in 2019 are poised to hit the highest level since the recession, according to a new report from Edmunds. In 2018, 40.2 million used vehicles were sold in the U.S.; in 2019, Edmunds analysts predict used vehicle sales could approach 41 million. Edmunds experts say rising vehicle prices and high interest rates are pushing buyers out of the new market, and a record number of lease returns this year will give shoppers more options than ever in the used market.

“Typically sales of new and used vehicles follow the same pattern — if sales of new vehicles rise or fall, so do sales of used vehicles, and vice versa,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ senior manager of industry analysis. “But now we’re seeing new vehicle sales fall while used rise, indicating the market has reached a flash point. New cars are getting so expensive that they’re out of reach for many car shoppers, but there are so many more affordable used vehicles coming off lease that the market is naturally shifting in that direction.” 

Edmunds data shows that in 2013, the price gap between new and 3-year-old used vehicles was 56 percent, amounting to more than $11,000 in savings on average. In 2018, that number grew to 62 percent, totaling nearly $14,000 in savings on average. Edmunds data also reveals that new car interest rates jumped by 17 percent in 2018, whereas rates for used vehicles have risen at a slower clip, with interest rates increasing by 9 percent in the same period.

Edmunds experts say that these market conditions have never been more favorable for CPO vehicles, but there’s an opportunity for automakers to better educate car shoppers on the benefits of these programs. According to Google Trends data, relative search interest for CPO vehicles has steadily increased over the last five years, but the top pages viewed on Edmunds for shoppers of CPO vehicles are “What Are Certified Pre-Owned Vehicles?” and “Certified Pre-Owned Cars Vs. Used Cars With Extended Warranties.”

“Many shoppers are unaware of the benefits of CPO vehicle programs, but given the tough financial conditions in the new market, it’s never been a better time to look into them,” said Drury. “Between more affordable prices, the assurance of an automaker warranty, and lower interest rates, CPO vehicles give car shoppers a way to enjoy many of the benefits of a new car and minimize many of the risks of buying a used car.”