Eastern Partnership summit likely to disappoint

The EU shows little sign of putting out the welcome mat for non-member ex-Soviet republics to its east.

MINSK — Thousands of Ukrainians braved clubs and bullets last year to show they wanted a European future for their country; this week’s Eastern Partnership summit in Riga will likely show them that the door still isn’t open.

According to signals from Brussels, the EU is not only going to avoid mentioning Ukraine’s possible membership, something EU diplomats have gone into contortions to avoid spelling out in the past, but has even decided to postpone the introduction of a visa-free regime for Ukraine and Georgia.

The draft resolution of the Riga summit, leaked before the event, is significantly less ambitious in comparison with the one adopted at the previous Eastern Partnership meeting in Vilnius at the end of 2013. That summit, taking place in the heady days before Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine,  acknowledged “the European aspirations and the European choice of some partners.” The new draft text instead puts the onus on Brussels to set the terms, saying, “It is for the EU and its sovereign to decide on how they want to proceed in their relations.”

The draft “underscores the European Union’s drift away from stronger engagement with its partners,” writes Robbie Gramer of the Atlantic Council.

That careful language is a sign of the uncertain status of the Eastern Partnership. The idea of forging a closer relationship with the ex-Soviet republics to the east of the EU was a 2009 idea of Sweden and Poland and folded into the bloc’s broader neighborhood policy. But the six partnership countries — Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan — have become increasingly different, and the EU increasingly wary of provoking Russia.

Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova have signed Association Agreements and free trade deals with the EU; Moldova has visa-free status. But Armenia is moving closer to Russia and oil-rich Azerbaijan is an oppressive dictatorship that is of interest mainly for providing an alternative to Russian gas for the EU. Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko is under EU and US sanction for cracking down on the opposition.

In recent months, officials in Kiev have tried to assure Ukrainians that the main obstacle to a visa-free regime is the EU’s unwillingness to remove restrictions while a war continues in the country’s eastern regions. However, Brussels says Kiev is moving too slowly in introducing the technical reforms necessary for the abolition of visas. There are also fears that liberalizing visa rules could create a huge influx of labor migrants from cash-strapped Ukraine, with a population of 45 million.

But Ukraine is not giving up. On Tuesday, President Petro Poroshenko talked with the UK Prime Minister David Cameron. stressing that Kiev is expecting “clearer signals” from the EU on the introduction of a visa-free regime and “recognition of the prospects of its European future.”

Looming over the summit is Russia. Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU sparked the Maidan protests that led to current crisis with Russia. Moscow is keeping a close eye on what happens in Riga. This week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on the EU to prove the Eastern Partnership is not a threat. “Our European partners … have pledged that the Eastern Partnership will not develop to the detriment of Russia’s interests. The words are sound and we would like to see them substantiated with concrete deeds.”

“Russia wants to play a ‘zero-sum’ game,” while our cooperation [with the Eastern Partnership member states] are based on a win-win approach,” said Maira Mora, the head of the EU delegation to Belarus.

While the more enthusiastic of the partnership countries are likely to be disappointed by the outcome of Riga, Belarus is coming back into favor — largely the result of the EU wanting to balance Russia’s influence. While a few years ago, Lukashenko was derided as “Europe’s last dictator,” the recent behaviour of Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the Minsk authoritarian seem a little more benign.

Johannes Hahn, the Commissioner for Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, met with Lukashenko last month. Lukashenko has received positive reviews for his backing of peace talks leading to the ongoing Minsk II ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. “We appreciate Belarus’s balanced stance on Ukraine and the positive steps it has taken with regards to relations with the EU,” said Maja Kocijančič, Hahn’s spokeswoman.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t still grit in the relationship. A decision earlier this month to transfer Mikalai Statkevich, a presidential candidate from the disputed 2010 election, from a penal colony to a prison, drew EU criticism. “The importance of releasing all political prisoners remains crucial in the context of improving EU-Belarus relations,” said a Commission statement.

But the view on Belarus was spelled out in a recent comment by Latvian President Andris Bērziņš. “Our interest is clear — we should do everything possible for our relationship,” he said.

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